The Melo Incident: The Final Word. For Now...

September 9, 2010

For a short while, it was unclear which way Anthony Carmelo would go. Was he a Duncan/Durant/Nowitski old school soldier - sign as a rookie, play hard, get better, re-sign, play harder, get rich, try to win, stay put? Or would he become part of the Boozer/James/Bosh new world order - sign, play hard, get better, look around, do endorsements, create a buzz, look around, air issues publicly, look around, go where the wind blows?

In August, Melo decidedly removed himself from the “no-drama-Durant” camp when the newly wed Nugget not so quietly refused to sign Denver’s 3 year, $65 million contract extension offer.

Perhaps Anthony was expressing concern about the team’s future: a coach returning from his second bout of cancer; a vacant GM position; three key players, Martin, Smith, Afflalo, playing out final year contracts; an all-star point guard whose large contract could be cancelled at little expense to the franchise.

Or was he blinded by the Lebron James “I can’t get enough of me” spotlight?

Whatever the reason, Melo has dominated NBA news, and trade scenarios populated the blogosphere quickly. Stoking the rumor flames, Lady Lala (aka Mrs. Anthony) added: “New York is the place we ought to be, so she packed up their bags and moved to...”

And the drama continued, as billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov chirped in with his “we can see New York from our window” pitch. L.A. quickly became another rumored destination, as did Houston, Sacto, Golden State, D.C. and 25 other cities, all scheming on how to get in on the action.

Unfortunately, for all the dreamers, Anthony is under contract and obligated to play for Denver through 2011. And, despite what agents, posses and egoists insist, non-free agent NBA players do not hold the upper hand in negotiations and have little leverage in deciding what uniform they will wear next week.

That said, let the fun begin; here’s what is rumored to have been offered to Denver for Anthony in a sign and trade deal:

Chicago Bulls: Lual Deng, Taj Gibson, James Johnson, 2012 #1 pick, 2013 #1 pick.

- Why Chicago likes it: Melo, Boozer and Rose are more than a formidable trio. Adding Noah, Korver, Brewer makes this an elite team.

- Why Denver likes it: A reasonably good package of youth, rebounding, scoring and picks. And Melo goes east.

- Why it will happen: The Bulls and the Melo posse would do this in a heartbeat. If Denver is cornered and forced to pull the trigger, this is one of the better offers.

- Why it won’t happen: Deng has a bad contract.

- Probability: 10%.

Note: If Noah is included in place of Deng, the probability increases dramatically.

Houston Rockets: Kevin Martin, Shane Battier, Chase Budinger, Chuck Hayes, 2011 #1 pick

- Why Houston likes it: Melo is what McGrady was supposed to be. Surround him with Yao, Scola, and Brad Miller up front and Brooks at the point, and a healthy Rocket lineup can be dangerous deep into the playoffs.

- Why Denver likes it: Martin replaces most of Melo’s points at the 2; some young talent and high hoops-IQ players.

- Why it will happen: Denver gets roster flexibility and enough talent to continue their playoff run. Houston becomes a top five team (with a healthy Yao) and could challenge the Lakers.

- Why it won’t happen: Melo stays in the west. But if all attempts to keep Melo are exhausted, this deal might have legs.

- Probability: 8%

NJ / Brooklyn Nets: Derrick Favors, Terrance Williams, Devon Harris, 2011 #1 pick

- Why the N.J. likes it: A big building block, providing instant respectability to attract free agents in the near future.

- Why Denver likes it: Favors and Williams would be the 3 & 4 of the future, with Harris as either trade bait for a scorer or the best backup point guard in the league.

- Why it will happen: Shipping Melo east for young athletes and cap relief isn’t the worst option on the table.

- Why it won’t happen: This group may not get Denver back to the playoffs this year.

- Probability: 7%

L.A. Clippers: Blake Griffin, Al-Farouq Aminu, Craig Smith, Rasual Butler, 2011 #1 pick

- Why L.A. likes it: Maybe this motivates Baron Davis to focus and play like a ‘06-‘07 Warrior. If so, Anthony, Davis, Eric Gordon, and Kaman make for a formidable playoff team.

- Why Denver likes it: Plenty of potential in last year’s #1 overall, this year’s #8 pick and a first rounder next season.

- Why it will happen: L.A. for the newlyweds, Denver gets a future in return.

- Why it won’t happen: Denver may need more immediate scoring; something tells us JR Smith won’t pick up that slack.

- Probability: 5%

Golden State Warriors: Monte Ellis, Andres Biedrins, Brandon Wright, 2012 #1 pick

- Why Golden State likes it: As a Celtics minority owner, the new Warriors’ boss Joe Lacob learned the three star strategy to the NBA finals. While Melo, Stephan Curry and David Lee are not Wade, Bosh and LBJ, it’s a huge upgrade for the East Bay club, and makes them a more than respectable playoff team.

- Why Denver likes it: Melo’s scoring is replaced with Ellis’s 25 ppg, and for two years, Billups and Ellis may be the NBA’s best backcourt. Promising but injury prone young frontcourt talent could add value as well. And Warriors drafts are usually lottery...

- Why it will happen: Both teams get players they want, with Denver getting immediate frontcourt and backcourt help with athletes who can hoof it up and down the court, Karl-esque style.

- Why it won’t happen: If Melo (read: LaLa) is looking for the spotlight, Oakland isn’t LA or NYC. Denver doesn’t want this much in long-term salary commitments if Anthony's name isn't on the contract.

- Probability: 5%

L.A. Lakers: Andrew Bynum, 2011 #1 pick

- Why L.A. likes it: Start with Kobe and Melo. Add Gasol, Odom, Artest, mix well for 82 games, end up with another ring for Phil.

- Why Denver likes it: If Bynum is healthy, he can dominate and provide an inside presence that Nene and Kmart only hint at. Bynum is an all-star for years to come.

- Why it will happen: Both sides like it, both sides get value.

- Why it won’t happen: It’s hard to imagine the Nuggets handing the Lakers a Western Conference dream lineup.

- Probability: 3%

N.Y. Knicks: Wilson Chandler, Anthony Randolph, Dinilo Gallinari, Eddy Curry’s expiring contract (EC’s EC), #1 pick in 2014.

- Why the Knicks like it: Huge win, adding respectability and a scorer alongside Amare.

- Why the Nuggets likes it: Anthony Randolph plus some cap space; not much else.

- Why it will happen: Donny Walsh would dance around his wheelchair to do this. Melo’s new wife wants the spotlight; it doesn’t get brighter than here.

- Why it won’t happen: The Knicks just don’t have the talent or the picks Denver wants.

- Probability: 3%

Note: The Knicks best – and really only legitimate – chance to sign Melo is if he is not traded, does not re-sign and becomes an outright free agent in the summer of 2011.

Sacramento Kings: Demarcus Cousins, Omar Casspi, Jason Thompson, 2011, 2012 #1 picks.

- Why the Kings like it: Above all else, the Maloofs like to put on a show, and Melo will do that and fill Arco Arena. Tyreke and Melo is a good re-start, trying to bring back the magic of the Divac-Webber years.

- Why Denver likes it: Potential with low salary obligations. Cousins is a future star, a steal at #5 in last year’s draft. A couple of #1 picks.

- Why it will happen: Kings get a star; Denver solves its luxury tax problems.

- Why it won’t happen: All three sides have reservations: The Nuggets lose 30ppg, and trade the present for the future. The Kings currently have a good, young nucleus and, as tempting as Melo is, upsetting the apple cart now doesn’t make sense. For the Anthonys, it isn't a title contender or the spotlight; for Lala, Sacramento is K.C.-Omaha, or Saskatoon, or Siberia. It ain’t Hollywood or Broadway.

- Probability: 3%

Washington Wizards: Anyone not named John Wall (read: Blatche, McGee, Trevor Booker, #1 picks)

- Why the Wizards like it: Wall and Anthony. A good start on the road back to respectability.

- Why Denver likes it: They get the pick of the litter. The problem is, the litter is blemished fool’s gold.

- Why it will happen: Hard to see why Denver would want the Wizards castoffs, but there is some young talent. Stranger things have happened in the NBA.

- Why it won’t happen: Too many to list here.

- Probability: 1%

And, the Denver Nuggets:

- Why it will happen: Melo will come to his senses, understanding that $65 million guaranteed and delivered isn’t so bad while staring down a possible lockout next season. That stack of Benjamins might be too big to ignore. And, oh yea, the Nuggets won 50+ games each of the last 3 seasons and went to the Western Conference finals last year. They aren’t that far away…

- Why it won’t happen: Will Carmelo tank his reputation and season to try to get what he wants? Does Melo have LBJ spotlight jealousy? The answer isn’t as clear as it might seem. And how much influence does LaLa have over Melo? Is she Mrs. Anthony, or is he Mr. Vasquez?

- Probability: 50+%

Stay tuned…

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